The World Bank has issued a stark warning regarding the potential impact of escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran, on African economies.
In a statement released on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, the global financial institution cautioned that the crisis could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth across the continent, with Kenya among the countries most vulnerable to these shocks.
Kenya, which heavily relies on imported oil, is expected to feel the greatest impact as fuel prices surge and food costs rise due to supply disruptions linked to instability in the Middle East.
The World Bank revised its 2026 growth forecast for the region, lowering it by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%, a level that matches last year’s performance. Inflation, previously forecasted at 3.8%, is now expected to climb to 4.8%.
The World Bank emphasized that the economic burden of these global price shocks will fall most heavily on the world’s most vulnerable populations, especially in low-income, import-dependent economies. Spikes in fuel prices and potential sharp increases in food prices are particularly concerning, especially for nations with limited fiscal capacity and high debt burdens, which restrict governments’ ability to support vulnerable households.
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In particular, the surge in Brent crude prices which jumped by as much as 55%, reaching more than Ksh 14,464.80 per barrel followed attacks by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28, 2026. While oil prices have since eased to below Ksh 13,050 per barrel following a temporary ceasefire, they remain significantly above pre-war levels, continuing to drive up fuel costs and the prices of essential goods in Kenya and other oil-importing economies.
In addition to higher fuel prices, the cost of fertilizers has also surged, adding to the pressures on farmers as harvests begin in key African agricultural regions. This is expected to exacerbate food price inflation, which has already been a persistent concern.
The World Bank further warned that these ongoing global price shocks could deepen poverty in regions that are already facing high vulnerability.
In Kenya, where the economy is heavily reliant on both imported fuel and food, inflation is projected to rise by over 4%. This could result in a 2.6% reduction in household incomes and push nearly one million people below the poverty line.
Another concern highlighted in the World Bank’s statement is the potential slowdown in investment inflows from Gulf countries, which are major contributors to Kenya’s infrastructure and development projects.
As these nations shift focus toward post-conflict reconstruction in the Middle East, Kenya may see a reduction in financial support, further straining its economic growth prospects.
Remittances from African workers in the Gulf, which make up a significant portion of national economies, could be impacted.
By Obegi Malack
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