- Kenya faces a projected maize shortfall of 5.4 million bags by the end of September, prompting plans to import one million bags for strategic reserves.
- Drought in the North Rift is threatening maize production as crops dry up amid inadequate rainfall.
- The supply gap could push maize prices higher, with a 90 kilogramme bag currently selling for Ksh3,000 to Ksh4,500.
Kenya will be facing a maize shortage of 5.4 million bags by the end of next month, prompting the government to import one million bags for the reserves.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary (CS) Mutahi Kagwe said the shortfall has pushed the government to act quickly. The one million bags, each weighing 90 kilogrammes, will go towards the National Strategic Food Reserve.
The looming shortage comes as farmers in the North Rift, one of Kenya’s key maize growing regions, struggle with inadequate rainfall. Crops have been left drying in the fields, raising fears of heavy losses among farmers.
The poor weather could further reduce domestic supplies in the coming months, adding pressure on an already tight market.
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Kenya’s maize needs remain far higher than what farmers can produce. The country consumes between 50 million and 60 million 90-kilogramme bags every year, while local farmers produce only 34 million to 42 million bags.
This gap is driven partly by high per capita consumption, which stands at about 103 kilogrammes annually.
The supply situation could worsen if forecasts of El Nino conditions materialise in the coming months. Heavy rains and flooding linked to the phenomenon could cause further damage to crops.
Because of this, consumers could face higher maize prices if stocks fail to keep pace with demand. A 90 kilogramme bag currently trades between Ksh 3,000 and Ksh 4,500, though the expected shortfall could push prices up further.
Maize prices last hit a high of Ksh 6,000 per 90 kilogramme bag in 2022, when the country was grappling with severe drought, inadequate supplies and elevated farm input costs.
By Jonathan Mwinzi
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