- Three sectors emerge as potential engines for fresh private investment and jobs
- Agriculture, coastal tourism and medical manufacturing face key barriers to expansion
- Reforms could open new opportunities for farmers, businesses and regional manufacturers
Kenya could unlock up to Ksh194.6 billion in fresh private investment and create about 80,000 direct jobs by fixing bottlenecks in three sectors with huge untapped potential: agriculture, coastal tourism and medical manufacturing.
That is the headline finding from a new World Bank Group Country Private Sector Diagnostic. It identifies avocado and mango value chains, coastal tourism and medical consumables manufacturing as areas where targeted reforms could unlock substantial private capital and employment over the next decade.
This opportunity comes at a critical moment for Kenya, where millions of young people are entering the labour market while formal job creation remains limited.
The World Bank’s assessment suggests that the country does not necessarily need to discover entirely new industries to expand employment. Instead, some of the biggest opportunities could lie in sectors Kenya already has a strong foundation in, but where investment, processing, infrastructure and market access remain below their potential.
Kenya has established advantages in agribusiness, including productive value chains, a large domestic market and its position as a regional trading and logistics hub. The World Bank’s diagnostic specifically examines avocado and mango value chains as potential investment areas.
Kenya produced approximately 783,000 tonnes of mangoes in 2024, with nearly 800,000 farmers involved in production. Yet only about 10 per cent of the crop was processed and approximately 3 per cent exported.
The World Bank estimates that reforms across the avocado and mango value chains could unlock up to US$167 million in additional private investment. It also expects approximately 36,000 additional and better-paid jobs over 10 years.
That transformation would depend on tackling challenges such as quality standards, pest management and delays affecting businesses’ cash flow.
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For farmers, greater processing could mean a wider market beyond selling fresh fruit. Businesses, meanwhile, could benefit from opportunities in juice production, packaging, cold storage, transport and exports.
With more than 600 kilometres of coastline, the country has beaches, marine attractions, cultural sites, golf facilities and a natural link between coastal holidays and wildlife tourism.
The World Bank estimates that coastal tourism could attract between US$380 million and US$560 million in new private investment and generate up to 14,000 jobs if key constraints are addressed.
This opportunity is particularly significant because Kenya already attracts large numbers of visitors for wildlife tourism and conferences.
Getting more of those visitors to extend their stays to the coast could increase spending without requiring the country to depend entirely on finding new tourist markets.
In addition, the World Bank’s broader analysis identifies the need for stronger destination development, infrastructure and private sector participation in tourism.
The third opportunity is in medical consumables manufacturing, potentially opening another route towards industrialisation and regional exports.
Products such as gloves, intravenous kits, gauze and syringes are essential to healthcare systems across Africa, yet many countries continue to depend heavily on imports.
Kenya’s strategic position could allow manufacturers to target neighbouring markets, including Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
Overall, the report estimates that reforms could unlock as much as US$780 million in additional private investment and create approximately 33,200 direct jobs over 10 years.
That would give Kenya an opportunity to combine domestic supply with regional manufacturing and export growth.
Together, the three sectors are significant not simply because of the money they could attract, but because they illustrate the wider challenge facing Kenya’s private economy.
The World Bank’s diagnostic argues that Kenya possesses important foundations for private sector growth but continues to face constraints that raise the cost and uncertainty of doing business.
Access to finance, infrastructure, reliable utilities, regulation and market conditions all influence whether businesses expand or remain small.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s 2025 Enterprise Survey of Kenyan firms is examining many of these same issues, including infrastructure, finance, competition, permits, innovation and business-government relations.
By Hillary Muhalya
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