Kenya’s agriculture sector expanded by 3.2% in the third quarter of 2025, which is the slowest pace in more than two years as declines in key export crops outweighed gains in milk deliveries and cut flower shipments, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) has reported.
KNBS said the sector’s growth eased from 4.0% in the same quarter of 2024. The bureau noted that increased milk production and stronger cut flower exports supported output, but broader production challenges dragged overall performance. Milk deliveries to processors rose 9.7% to 249.0 million litres, while cut flower exports surged 36.2% to 31,277 metric tonnes.
Those gains were offset by sharp declines in other sectors. In the coffee sector, exports fell from 17,732.8 metric tonnes in Q3 2024 to 8,312.7 metric tonnes in the quarter under review, while vegetable exports dropped from 20,480.9 metric tonnes to 16,617.0 metric tonnes. Fruit exports also slipped by 5% to 58,414.5 metric tonnes, reflecting broad weakness across horticulture.
Cane deliveries for sugar production declined from 2,526.7 thousand metric tonnes in Q3 2024 to 1,350.0 thousand metric tonnes, and tea output fell 2.8% to 118.4 thousand metric tonnes. The sector’s subdued performance extends a year‑long slowing trend: Q2 2025 growth came in at 4.4% (down from 4.5% in Q2 2024), while Q1 2025 posted a stronger 6.0%, underscoring lingering volatility in agricultural output.
Analysts point to a mix of domestic and global pressures behind the slowdown, including fluctuating commodity prices, adverse weather patterns, and persistent challenges in managing key export crops. Kenya’s reliance on smallholder production and exposure to seasonal rainfall variability have compounded uneven performance across sub‑sectors.
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The deceleration carries wider economic implications given agriculture’s central role in employment, rural incomes, and supply chains for agro‑based industries. Lower yields and weaker exports risk dampening foreign exchange earnings and disrupting downstream processing and logistics.
However, agriculture, forestry, and fishing remained among the main drivers of overall growth during the period. The economy expanded by 4.9% in Q3 2025, up from 4.2% a year earlier, with other sectors helping to cushion the impact of the agricultural slowdown. Construction rebounded from a 2.6% contraction in Q3 2024 to post 6.7% growth, while mining and quarrying recovered from a 12.2% decline to record a robust 16.6% expansion.
Service and trade‑related activities further bolstered the quarter’s performance. Accommodation and food services grew by 17.7%, real estate by 5.7%, financial and insurance services by 5.4%, and transport and storage by 5.2%.
By Masaki Enock
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