- Kenya prepares for heavy OND rains affecting up to 1.5 million people
- Government plans evacuation centres, supplies and rescue operations
- Counties at risk of floods and landslides placed under close watch
Kenya has intensified preparations for potentially heavy October, November and December (OND) rains, with authorities warning that up to 1.5 million people could be affected and 500,000 displaced under a worst-case scenario.
The warning was issued Monday as the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF13) opened in Nairobi, bringing together government agencies, climate experts, humanitarian organisations, development partners, the private sector and civil society.
National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) Director Col. (Rtd) David Samoei said the government was now focusing on preparing for the possible impacts of the rains rather than debating whether they would occur.
“There will be a transport disruption,” Samoei said, noting that contingency measures were being put in place for communities that could become cut off.
Authorities are preparing for possible flooding, landslides, drowning incidents, washed-away bridges, dam failures and building collapses, as well as disruptions to transport, water, electricity and communication networks.
The government has placed Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, parts of the Coast, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo, Murang’a, Kiambu, Kisumu and Busia under close monitoring.
Samoei said Murang’a, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Kiambu were particularly vulnerable to landslides, while several other counties face significant flood risks.
NDOC has activated multi-agency preparedness measures and is working with county commissioners in affected areas to assess potential impacts and coordinate response operations.
The government is also working with the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) to support rescue operations in areas that may become inaccessible by road, including the possible deployment of helicopters.
Supplies and evacuation centres to be prepared
Authorities are planning to pre-position food and other essential supplies near vulnerable communities before the rains begin.
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Businesses operating in potentially affected areas have also been urged to increase their stocks to cushion communities against possible disruptions to transport and supply chains.
The government is further identifying evacuation centres ahead of the rainy season, with the aim of avoiding the use of schools as emergency shelters.
Samoei said previous emergencies had seen schools used as evacuation centres, resulting in disruption of learning and damage to property.
He also urged residents, particularly in urban areas, to keep drainage systems, rivers and other waterways free of waste to reduce the risk of flooding.
Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) Acting Director Edward Muriuki said weather models currently indicate an over 80 per cent chance of heavy rainfall during the OND season.
He added that the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum held the previous week had indicated a 99 per cent chance of El Niño occurring, with more than 90 per cent likelihood that it would be very strong.
Muriuki, however, cautioned that El Niño alone does not determine rainfall patterns, saying KMSA was continuing to monitor other climate factors that could influence weather conditions across the country.
A detailed national OND forecast is expected to be released with more specific information on rainfall patterns and their likely impacts.
Muriuki stressed the importance of ensuring that weather forecasts are communicated in clear and actionable language so that communities can make informed decisions.
“It is one thing to communicate this information, but it should be understandable,” he said.
The three-day NCOF13 is expected to strengthen coordination among stakeholders and guide preparedness measures ahead of the OND rainy season.
By Obegi Malack
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